How many Tesla deliveries in Q4 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give 425k to 450k a 31% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 425k to 450k | 31% | +223 | ▲ 19 |
| 450k to 475k | 23% | +344 | ▲ 9 |
| 475k to 500k | 18% | +456 | ▲ 5 |
| 500k to 525k | 16% | +545 | ▼ 0 |
| 400k to 425k | 15% | +549 | ▼ 10 |
| 550k to 575k | 6% | +1487 | ▼ 1 |
| 575k+ | 5% | +1920 | ▼ 1 |
| <400k | 3% | +3604 | — |
| 525k to 550k | 3% | +3604 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q4 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q4 2026 delivery figures by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press; however, other official company sources or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in How many Tesla deliveries in Q4 2026?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price 425k to 450k at 31%, about +223 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Mar 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on How many Tesla deliveries in Q4 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.