How many SpaceX launches in 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give 140-159 a 77% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 140-159 | 77% | -331 | ▼ 2 |
| 120-139 | 20% | +389 | ▲ 4 |
| 180-199 | 6% | +1718 | — |
| 200 or more | 3% | +2930 | — |
| 160-179 | <1% | +11665 | — |
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Price history
On Kalshi
The same question also trades on Kalshi. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in How many SpaceX launches in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price 140-159 at 77%, about -331 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on How many SpaceX launches in 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket and a matching market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.