Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 94% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7% | +1438 | ▼ 0 |
| No | 94% | -1438 | ▲ 1 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format. Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar. A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar. Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026"?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 94%, about -1438 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
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