Next Grok Model (4.8+) released on... Odds
Polymarket traders give No release by November 30 a 39% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| No release by November 30 | 39% | +160 | ▲ 12 |
| November 20 | 29% | +250 | ▼ 11 |
| November 14 | 23% | +327 | — |
| November 24 | 23% | +327 | ▼ 3 |
| November 7 | 23% | +333 | ▼ 2 |
| November 27 | 22% | +349 | ▲ 1 |
| November 17 | 21% | +367 | ▲ 19 |
| November 16 | 21% | +387 | ▲ 3 |
| November 18 | 20% | +400 | ▲ 5 |
| November 19 | 20% | +413 | ▼ 1 |
| November 26 | 12% | +770 | — |
| November 23 | 4% | +2253 | ▼ 9 |
| November 13 | 4% | +2369 | — |
| November 8 | 4% | +2717 | — |
| November 10 | 3% | +3746 | — |
| November 30 | 2% | +4551 | — |
| November 6 | 2% | +4900 | ▼ 1 |
| November 15 | 2% | +6150 | ▲ 1 |
| November 21 | 2% | +6150 | ▲ 1 |
| November 28 | 2% | +6150 | ▲ 1 |
| November 11 | 2% | +6352 | ▲ 1 |
| November 12 | 2% | +6352 | ▲ 1 |
| November 22 | 1% | +8596 | ▲ 1 |
| November 25 | 1% | +8991 | ▲ 1 |
| November 29 | 1% | +8991 | ▲ 1 |
| November 9 | <1% | +18082 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.8+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.8 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or Grok 4.7 would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.8 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.8, such as Grok 4.7 (released September 21, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Next Grok Model (4.8+) released on...?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No release by November 30 at 39%, about +160 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Dec 1, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Next Grok Model (4.8+) released on...?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.