AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 95% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | +1920 | — |
| No | 95% | -1920 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026"?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 95%, about -1920 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.