Gemini Carbon released on... Odds
Polymarket traders give November 10 a 48% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 10 | 48% | +107 | ▲ 5 |
| November 11 | 18% | +449 | ▼ 2 |
| November 9 | 7% | +1270 | ▲ 7 |
| November 12 | 6% | +1487 | ▼ 1 |
| November 17 | 4% | +2717 | ▲ 1 |
| No release by November 30 | 3% | +2930 | — |
| November 13 | 1% | +7592 | ▼ 0 |
| November 19 | 1% | +8596 | — |
| November 18 | 1% | +8991 | — |
| November 16 | 1% | +9900 | — |
| November 23 | 1% | +9900 | — |
| November 20 | <1% | +12400 | — |
| November 26 | <1% | +14186 | — |
| November 24 | <1% | +18082 | — |
| November 25 | <1% | +18082 | — |
| November 30 | <1% | +18082 | — |
| November 15 | <1% | +19900 | — |
| November 27 | <1% | +19900 | — |
| November 8 | <1% | +28471 | — |
| November 21 | <1% | +39900 | — |
| November 14 | <1% | +49900 | — |
| November 22 | <1% | +199900 | — |
| November 28 | <1% | +199900 | — |
| November 29 | <1% | +199900 | — |
We may earn a commission if you sign up or trade through links to venues. It never changes the prices or rankings we show. 18+ (21+ where required). Only trade where prediction markets are legal for you. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. How we make money
Price history
Resolution rules
On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10). This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which "Carbon", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google. A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Carbon" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed "Carbon", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Gemini Carbon released on...?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price November 10 at 48%, about +107 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Dec 1, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Gemini Carbon released on...?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.