How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026 Odds · In 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 120 | 99% | -6567 | — |
| Above 140 | 66% | -190 | — |
| Above 145 | 5% | +2122 | — |
| Above 150 | 4% | +2757 | ▼ 1 |
| Above 160 | 4% | +2757 | — |
| Above 170 | 3% | +3900 | — |
| Above 180 | 3% | +3900 | — |
| Above 190 | 2% | +6567 | ▼ 1 |
| Above 200 | 2% | +6567 | — |
| Above 210 | 1% | +9900 | — |
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On Polymarket
The same question also trades on Polymarket. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
If SpaceX has more than 120 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Dec 31, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?
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