Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist Odds · Before 2027
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before September | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Before October | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 2% | +4445 | ▲ 1 |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 13% | +700 | — |
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 22% | +365 | ▲ 1 |
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Resolution rules
If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.