AZ-08 House winner? (2028): Republican party 91% ▲ 91AZ-09 House winner? (2028): Republican party 82% ▲ 82Big Bash League, Women: Sydney Sixers vs Syd… 9% ▼ 41Abu Dhabi T10 League: United Tigers vs Arabi… 9% ▼ 41Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (… 92% ▲ 39College Football Playoff Qualifiers: Ohio St. 14% ▼ 37Test Match: Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe: Zimbabwe 3% ▼ 29Test Match: Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe: Draw 77% ▲ 24Will Pete Hegseth be impeached: Before Apr 1… 83% ▲ 23Brazilian Grand Prix: Driver Winner: Max Ver… 13% ▼ 23Pete Hegseth impeached by...: March 31, 2027 78% ▲ 20Jonathan Taylor Next Team: New York G 31% ▼ 20Next Israeli government # of seats: <58 72% ▲ 20NCAA Football: 2026 Heisman Award Winner: CJ… 32% ▲ 19Khamenei # posts November 3 - November 10, 2… 85% ▲ 18Heisman Trophy Winner: CJ Carr 34% ▲ 18What will Trump say during 60 Minutes: Iran … 75% ▼ 17ATP Paris Winner: Carlos Alcaraz 77% ▲ 17NCAA Football: 2026 Heisman Award Winner: Je… 21% ▼ 17College Football Playoff Qualifiers: Texas 73% ▲ 17How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO: $6… 37% ▲ 17What will Trump say during 60 Minutes: Ukraine 69% ▼ 16Heisman Trophy Winner: Jeremiah Smith 23% ▼ 16Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/2 … 46% ▼ 15AZ-08 House winner? (2028): Republican party 91% ▲ 91AZ-09 House winner? (2028): Republican party 82% ▲ 82Big Bash League, Women: Sydney Sixers vs Syd… 9% ▼ 41Abu Dhabi T10 League: United Tigers vs Arabi… 9% ▼ 41Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (… 92% ▲ 39College Football Playoff Qualifiers: Ohio St. 14% ▼ 37Test Match: Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe: Zimbabwe 3% ▼ 29Test Match: Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe: Draw 77% ▲ 24Will Pete Hegseth be impeached: Before Apr 1… 83% ▲ 23Brazilian Grand Prix: Driver Winner: Max Ver… 13% ▼ 23Pete Hegseth impeached by...: March 31, 2027 78% ▲ 20Jonathan Taylor Next Team: New York G 31% ▼ 20Next Israeli government # of seats: <58 72% ▲ 20NCAA Football: 2026 Heisman Award Winner: CJ… 32% ▲ 19Khamenei # posts November 3 - November 10, 2… 85% ▲ 18Heisman Trophy Winner: CJ Carr 34% ▲ 18What will Trump say during 60 Minutes: Iran … 75% ▼ 17ATP Paris Winner: Carlos Alcaraz 77% ▲ 17NCAA Football: 2026 Heisman Award Winner: Je… 21% ▼ 17College Football Playoff Qualifiers: Texas 73% ▲ 17How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO: $6… 37% ▲ 17What will Trump say during 60 Minutes: Ukraine 69% ▼ 16Heisman Trophy Winner: Jeremiah Smith 23% ▼ 16Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/2 … 46% ▼ 15

Next GPT Terra (5.7+) released on... Odds

This market has resolved: October 26. Final prices are below.

Polymarket Volume $57.6K Ended Dec 1, 2026 Updated Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST
OutcomeChanceOdds24h
October 26 ✓
100% — ▲ 89
On or prior to October 23
0% — ▼ 4
October 24
0% — —
October 25
0% — —
October 27
0% — ▼ 11
October 28
0% — ▼ 5
October 29
0% — ▼ 21
October 30
0% — ▼ 3
October 31
0% — ▼ 1
November 1
0% — ▼ 3
November 2
0% — ▼ 0
November 3
0% — —
November 4
0% — ▼ 0
November 5
0% — ▼ 11
November 6
0% — ▼ 1
November 7
0% — ▼ 0
November 8
0% — ▼ 0
November 9
0% — ▼ 0
November 10
0% — ▼ 1
November 11
0% — ▼ 9
November 12
0% — ▼ 1
November 13
0% — ▼ 13
November 14
0% — ▼ 4
November 15
0% — —
November 16
0% — ▼ 0
November 17
0% — ▼ 0
November 18
0% — ▼ 0
November 19
0% — ▼ 2
November 20
0% — ▼ 3
November 21
0% — ▼ 4
November 22
0% — —
November 23
0% — ▼ 9
November 24
0% — —
November 25
0% — ▼ 0
November 26
0% — ▼ 1
November 27
0% — ▼ 4
November 28
0% — ▼ 0
November 29
0% — ▼ 2
November 30
0% — ▼ 8
No release by November 30
0% — ▼ 16

Price history

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Oct 22 Oct 29
October 26On or prior to October 23October 24

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Terra model (5.7+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Terra" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Terra would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Terra or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Terra" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Terra, GPT-5.6 Sol, or GPT-5.6 Luna, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.

FAQ

How are prediction market odds calculated?

Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.

When does this market close?

Polymarket lists Dec 1, 2026 as the end date; this market has closed.

Where can I trade on Next GPT Terra (5.7+) released on...?

This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.