Another critical PHP security flaw in 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 70% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 31% | +228 | — |
| No | 70% | -228 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a critical vulnerability in PHP is first publicly disclosed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and meets all requirements below by that deadline. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Public disclosure means publicly available information sufficient to identify the specific vulnerability, whether through an official advisory, researcher publication, leak, or public code commit. A general warning about an unspecified vulnerability will not alone qualify. A vulnerability publicly disclosed before market creation will not qualify merely because it receives a CVE identifier or qualifying score during the market period. A qualifying vulnerability must affect PHP itself (the PHP interpreter and the extensions bundled in the official php-src source code), must be assigned a publicly available CVE identifier, and must receive a publicly published CVSS base score of 9.0 or higher (under any CVSS version) from either the PHP project or the US National Vulnerability Database (NVD). Vulnerabilities affecting only unsupported PHP versions or optional bundled extensions will qualify if they otherwise meet these requirements. Extensions distributed separately from php-src (for example, through PECL) will not qualify. A qualifying score from either source is sufficient, regardless of a lower score from the other source or under another CVSS version. Only a score published by the NVD itself (attributed to NIST) or by the PHP project will count; scores displayed by NVD but attributed to any other organization will not qualify. Once all requirements have been met during the market period, subsequent score revisions will not affect resolution. CVE-2026-109618 and CVE-2026-109619 (“PHP2Shell”) will not qualify. Vulnerabilities in third-party software written in or running on PHP (for example, WordPress, Laravel, Drupal, plugins, or other frameworks and libraries) will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the PHP project (including php.net and the php-src GitHub security advisories) and the NVD (https://nvd.nist.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Another critical PHP security flaw in 2026"?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 70%, about -228 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Another critical PHP security flaw in 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.