When will Gemini Carbon be released Odds
Polymarket traders give November 9–November 15 a 81% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 9–November 15 | 81% | -413 | — |
| November 16–November 22 | 15% | +558 | ▼ 1 |
| November 23–November 29 | 3% | +2799 | ▲ 1 |
| November 2–November 8 | 3% | +3126 | ▲ 2 |
| November 30–December 6 | <1% | +28471 | ▼ 1 |
| December 7–December 13 | <1% | +49900 | — |
| No release by January 3 | <1% | +66567 | — |
| December 14–December 20 | <1% | +199900 | — |
| December 21–December 27 | <1% | +199900 | — |
| December 28–January 3 | <1% | +199900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10). This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which "Carbon", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google. A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Carbon" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed "Carbon", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in When will Gemini Carbon be released?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price November 9–November 15 at 81%, about -413 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 4, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on When will Gemini Carbon be released?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.