Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31 Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 96% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | +2640 | ▼ 1 |
| No | 96% | -2640 | ▲ 1 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31"?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 96%, about -2640 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.