Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime Odds · Before 2099
Kalshi traders give No a 90% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 11% | +852 | ▼ 1 |
| No | 90% | -852 | ▲ 1 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If Elon Musk visits Mars before the earlier of his death or Aug 1, 2099, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime"?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price No at 90%, about -852 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Aug 1, 2099 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.