SpaceX Starship 15th launch Odds · SpaceX Starship (15th launch)
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Oct 16, 2026 | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Before Oct 30, 2026 | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Before Nov 13, 2026 | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Before Nov 27, 2026 | 97% | -2757 | ▲ 5 |
| Before Dec 11, 2026 | 96% | -2122 | ▲ 2 |
We may earn a commission if you sign up or trade through links to venues. It never changes the prices or rankings we show. 18+ (21+ where required). Only trade where prediction markets are legal for you. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. How we make money
Resolution rules
If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 15 After issuance and before Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Dec 1, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on SpaceX Starship 15th launch?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.