OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027 Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 93% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | +1233 | — |
| No | 93% | -1233 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027"?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 93%, about -1233 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.