Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on... Odds
Polymarket traders give November 10 a 36% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 10 | 36% | +181 | ▼ 1 |
| November 18 | 25% | +295 | ▼ 3 |
| No release by November 30 | 15% | +567 | — |
| November 11 | 9% | +1036 | ▼ 13 |
| November 19 | 9% | +1036 | — |
| November 9 | 8% | +1216 | ▼ 1 |
| November 12 | 6% | +1450 | ▼ 18 |
| November 14 | 4% | +2253 | — |
| November 27 | 4% | +2339 | — |
| November 30 | 4% | +2400 | — |
| November 13 | 4% | +2640 | ▼ 11 |
| November 25 | 4% | +2717 | — |
| November 17 | 3% | +3025 | — |
| November 16 | 3% | +3536 | — |
| November 8 | 2% | +4445 | ▼ 0 |
| November 24 | 1% | +8596 | — |
| November 15 | <1% | +16567 | — |
| November 20 | <1% | +16567 | — |
| November 26 | <1% | +16567 | — |
| November 28 | <1% | +16567 | — |
| November 29 | <1% | +16567 | — |
| November 21 | <1% | +18082 | — |
| November 22 | <1% | +18082 | — |
| November 23 | <1% | +18082 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price November 10 at 36%, about +181 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Dec 1, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.