Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026 Odds · Before 2027
Kalshi traders give No a 99% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | +6567 | ▲ 1 |
| No | 99% | -6567 | ▼ 1 |
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Price history
On Polymarket
The same question also trades on Polymarket. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
If Reza Pahlavi is appointed, elected, named, designated, or succeeded to the position as the head of state or government of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026"?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price No at 99%, about -6567 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
This market trades on Kalshi and a matching market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.