Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give Delcy Rodríguez a 96% chance (Kalshi: 98%).
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delcy Rodríguez | 96% | -2567 | ▲ 1 | 98% |
| Edmundo González | 2% | +4445 | — | 1% |
| Marco Rubio | 1% | +9900 | — | — |
| María Corina Machado | <1% | +11665 | ▼ 1 | 3% |
| No Head of State | <1% | +39900 | — | — |
| Dinorah Figuera | <1% | +49900 | — | — |
| Jorge Rodríguez | <1% | +66567 | — | 2% |
| Nicolás Maduro | <1% | +199900 | — | 2% |
| Diosdado Cabello Rondón | <1% | +199900 | — | 1% |
| Donald Trump | <1% | +199900 | — | — |
| Vladimir Padrino López | <1% | +199900 | — | 3% |
| Evan Pettus | <1% | +199900 | — | — |
| Dan Caine | <1% | +199900 | — | — |
| Pete Hegseth | <1% | +199900 | — | — |
| Frank Donovan | <1% | +199900 | — | — |
| Richard Grenell | <1% | +199900 | — | — |
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Price history
On Kalshi
The same question also trades on Kalshi. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Delcy Rodríguez at 96%, about -2567 in American odds. On Kalshi the same outcome trades at 98%. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Dec 31, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket and a matching market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.