WA-05 House Election Winner Odds
Polymarket traders give Michael Baumgartner (R) a 98% chance (Kalshi: 99%).
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Baumgartner (R) | 98% | -4778 | ▼ 1 | 99% |
| Carmela Conroy (D) | 1% | +9424 | — | <1% |
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Price history
On Kalshi
The same question also trades on Kalshi. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in WA-05 House Election Winner?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Michael Baumgartner (R) at 98%, about -4778 in American odds. On Kalshi the same outcome trades at 99%. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 4, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on WA-05 House Election Winner?
This market trades on Polymarket and a matching market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.