Which Senate races will be within 5 points Odds · Nov 3, 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Alaska | 98% | -3900 | — |
| Maine | 7% | +1438 | — |
| Iowa | 97% | -3233 | — |
| South Carolina | >99% | -19900 | — |
| Kansas | 6% | +1718 | — |
| Nebraska | 3% | +3233 | — |
| Michigan | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Ohio (special) | 77% | -335 | — |
| Florida (special) | 99% | -9900 | — |
| New Hampshire | 1% | +9900 | ▼ 1 |
| North Carolina | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Mississippi | >99% | -19900 | — |
| Idaho | <1% | +19900 | — |
| South Dakota | <1% | +19900 | — |
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Resolution rules
If the margin of victory for the election winner in the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Texas falls within 0 to 5 percentage points, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Dec 18, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
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