Next leader out of power before 2027 Odds
Polymarket traders give Netanyahu - Israel PM a 45% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu - Israel PM | 45% | +125 | ▲ 19 |
| None before 2027 | 44% | +127 | ▼ 13 |
| Sánchez - Spanish PM | 4% | +2497 | ▼ 2 |
| Lecornu - France PM | 2% | +5163 | — |
| Abbas - President of Palestine | 2% | +6352 | — |
| Díaz-Canel - Cuba President | <1% | +10426 | — |
| Merz - German Chancellor | <1% | +11011 | — |
| Trump - USA President | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea | <1% | +22122 | — |
| Erdoğan - Türkiye President | <1% | +24900 | — |
| Macron - France President | <1% | +28471 | — |
| Xi - General Secretary of the CCP | <1% | +28471 | — |
| Zelenskyy - Ukraine President | <1% | +33233 | — |
| Lula da Silva - Brazil President | <1% | +33233 | — |
| Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President | <1% | +33233 | — |
| Putin - Russia President | <1% | +39900 | — |
| Takaichi - Japan PM | <1% | +49900 | — |
| Newsom - California Governor | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Milei - Argentina President | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Sheinbaum - Mexico President | <1% | +66567 | — |
| al-Sharaa - Syria President | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Albanese - Australia PM | <1% | +99900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Next leader out of power before 2027?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Netanyahu - Israel PM at 45%, about +125 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Next leader out of power before 2027?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.