Who will Trump pardon in 2026 Odds · Before Jan 1, 2027
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 4% | +2678 | — | — |
| Keonne Rodriguez | 10% | +947 | ▼ 2 | 9% |
| Derek Chauvin | 3% | +3025 | — | 3% |
| Sam Bankman-Fried | 3% | +2841 | ▲ 2 | 2% |
| Jared Kushner | 5% | +1861 | — | — |
| Eric Adams | 4% | +2717 | ▼ 5 | 4% |
| Steve Bannon | 4% | +2281 | ▼ 4 | 4% |
| Ghislaine Maxwell | 2% | +4248 | — | 4% |
| Bob Menendez | 4% | +2369 | — | 3% |
| Julian Assange | 4% | +2147 | — | 4% |
| Roger Ver | 4% | +2464 | — | 3% |
| Matt Borges | 5% | +1880 | — | — |
| Sean Combs | 6% | +1686 | ▼ 1 | — |
| Edward Snowden | 4% | +2400 | — | 4% |
| Robin Smith | 8% | +1135 | — | — |
| Larry Householder | 16% | +525 | ▼ 2 | — |
| Joseph Maldonado | 3% | +3746 | — | — |
| Torence Hatch | 5% | +1880 | — | — |
| Kenneth Petty | 5% | +1941 | — | — |
| Nicolás Maduro | 2% | +4248 | — | — |
| Martin Shkreli | 4% | +2717 | ▼ 4 | 2% |
| Aimee Bock | 4% | +2497 | — | — |
| Bill Hwang | 2% | +4900 | — | — |
| Elizabeth Holmes | 3% | +3290 | — | 3% |
| Tim Leissner | 9% | +999 | — | — |
| John Kiriakou | 8% | +1199 | — | — |
| Braden John Karony | 5% | +2098 | — | — |
| Nicole Daedone | 9% | +1049 | — | — |
| Rachel Cherwitz | 11% | +789 | — | — |
| Tal Alexander | 2% | +5028 | — | — |
| Jho Low | 7% | +1329 | — | — |
| Charlie Javice | 4% | +2757 | — | — |
| Leonard Glenn Francis | 7% | +1438 | — | — |
| Michael Cohen | 13% | +700 | ▲ 1 | — |
| Kimberly Guilfoyle | 90% | -900 | ▲ 82 | — |
| Josh Wander | 11% | +852 | — | — |
| Elon Musk | 8% | +1233 | — | 11% |
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Price history
On Polymarket
The same question also trades on Polymarket. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Who will Trump pardon in 2026?
This market trades on Kalshi and a matching market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.