Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027 Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markwayne Mullin | 10% | +953 | ▼ 13 | — |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 14% | +641 | ▲ 1 | 17% |
| Pete Hegseth | 43% | +135 | ▲ 10 | 38% |
| Marco Rubio | 12% | +770 | ▼ 3 | 17% |
| Scott Bessent | 9% | +1070 | ▼ 1 | 9% |
| Lee Zeldin | 8% | +1233 | ▼ 4 | 10% |
| Howard Lutnick | 17% | +506 | ▼ 4 | 19% |
| Kash Patel | 24% | +326 | ▲ 2 | 21% |
| Stephen Miller | 6% | +1539 | ▲ 3 | 97% |
| Dan Scavino | 7% | +1393 | — | — |
| David Sacks | 6% | +1686 | ▼ 1 | — |
| Russell Vought | 9% | +1076 | ▼ 3 | 12% |
| Tom Homan | 6% | +1567 | ▼ 5 | 10% |
| John Ratcliffe | 12% | +770 | ▼ 1 | 14% |
| Kristi Noem | 30% | +232 | ▲ 4 | — |
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Price history
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
This market trades on Polymarket and a matching market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.