Venezuela leader end of 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give Nicolás Maduro a 94% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolás Maduro | 94% | -1567 | ▲ 2 |
| Delcy Rodríguez | 5% | +1900 | ▼ 2 |
| María Corina Machado | <1% | +39900 | — |
| No Head of State | <1% | +39900 | — |
| Edmundo González | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Marco Rubio | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Jorge Rodríguez | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Pete Hegseth | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Diosdado Cabello Rondón | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Dinorah Figuera | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Donald Trump | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Vladimir Padrino López | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Evan Pettus | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Frank Donovan | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Dan Caine | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Richard Grenell | <1% | +199900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Venezuela leader end of 2026?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Nicolás Maduro at 94%, about -1567 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Venezuela leader end of 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.