Who will Trump pardon before 2027 Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Tate | 2% | +5163 | — | — |
| Sam Bankman-Fried | 2% | +4248 | — | 3% |
| Eric Adams | 4% | +2464 | — | 4% |
| Steve Bannon | 4% | +2147 | ▼ 1 | 4% |
| Roger Ver | 4% | +2497 | ▲ 1 | 4% |
| Julian Assange | 4% | +2603 | — | 4% |
| Himself | 6% | +1670 | — | — |
| Diddy | 4% | +2532 | — | — |
| Elon Musk | 11% | +830 | ▼ 0 | 8% |
| Hunter Biden | 2% | +4445 | — | — |
| Young Thug | 4% | +2339 | — | — |
| Edward Snowden | 4% | +2532 | — | 4% |
| Matt Gaetz | 4% | +2400 | — | — |
| Daniel Penny | 6% | +1670 | — | — |
| Roger Stone | 5% | +2005 | — | — |
| Bob Menendez | 3% | +3746 | — | 4% |
| Joe Exotic | 4% | +2567 | — | — |
| Derek Chauvin | 3% | +2885 | — | 3% |
| Antoine Massey | 3% | +3179 | — | — |
| Elizabeth Holmes | 3% | +2841 | — | 3% |
| Ghislaine Maxwell | 4% | +2369 | — | 2% |
| Do Kwon | 1% | +6797 | ▼ 1 | — |
| Stefan Brodie | 4% | +2339 | ▲ 1 | — |
| Donald Brodie | 9% | +1011 | ▲ 2 | — |
| Ryan Salame | 5% | +2122 | ▼ 8 | — |
| Keonne Rodriguez | 9% | +1011 | ▼ 4 | 10% |
| Martin Shkreli | 2% | +4344 | — | 4% |
| Nicolas Maduro | 3% | +2930 | — | — |
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Price history
On Kalshi
The same question also trades on Kalshi. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
This market trades on Polymarket and a matching market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.