Which bills will become law in 2026 Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO FAKES Act | 11% | +852 | ▼ 1 | 8% |
| $2.50 Coin | 4% | +2640 | — | 4% |
| DEFIANCE Act | 7% | +1339 | ▼ 1 | 3% |
| FISA Section 702 reauthorization | 10% | +900 | — | 8% |
| Critical-minerals stockpile | 9% | +1076 | ▲ 1 | 7% |
| SELF DRIVE Act | 6% | +1702 | ▲ 1 | 3% |
| Smithsonian Women’s History Museum | 3% | +3536 | — | 3% |
| Film/TV production expensing | 5% | +1752 | ▼ 2 | 6% |
| Credit-card routing competition | 7% | +1251 | — | 7% |
| Export-control chip security | 42% | +141 | ▼ 1 | 40% |
| AI-chip export licensing | 14% | +590 | ▲ 1 | 15% |
| Data center utility cost protection | 14% | +614 | — | 14% |
| SHOWER Act | 5% | +2098 | — | 3% |
| Trump Airport | 4% | +2400 | ▼ 1 | 3% |
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Price history
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if X is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Which bills will become law in 2026?
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