Which bills will become law in 2026 Odds · Before Jan 1, 2027
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Credit-card routing competition | 7% | +1339 | — | 7% |
| AI-chip export licensing | 15% | +567 | — | 14% |
| FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years) | 8% | +1233 | — | 10% |
| Critical-minerals stockpile | 7% | +1242 | — | 9% |
| Export-control chip security | 40% | +153 | ▼ 1 | 42% |
| Film/TV production expensing | 6% | +1686 | — | 5% |
| SHOWER Act | 3% | +2930 | — | 5% |
| Smithsonian Women’s History Museum | 3% | +3900 | — | 3% |
| DEFIANCE Act | 3% | +2799 | — | 7% |
| Trump Airport | 3% | +3409 | ▲ 2 | 4% |
| $2.50 Coin | 4% | +2757 | — | 3% |
| SELF DRIVE Act | 3% | +3233 | — | 6% |
| Data center utility cost protection | 14% | +641 | — | 14% |
| ROTOR Act | 6% | +1526 | — | — |
| Trump's Birthday as a federal holiday | 1% | +7592 | — | — |
| Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act | 14% | +614 | — | — |
| White House ballroom funding | 4% | +2757 | — | — |
| E15 year-round sales | 16% | +545 | ▲ 2 | — |
| Railway safety bill | 6% | +1718 | — | — |
| Surface transportation reauthorization | 4% | +2400 | — | — |
| Electric vehicle Highway Trust Fund fee | 3% | +2757 | — | — |
| Dignity Act | 6% | +1718 | — | — |
| Jewish American security | 5% | +1900 | — | — |
| Protect College Sports Act | 10% | +900 | ▼ 6 | — |
| Fort Bragg → Fort Liberty | 6% | +1718 | — | — |
| ADS-B revenue-use restriction | 16% | +525 | — | — |
| JAWBONE Act | 6% | +1718 | — | — |
| Insulin cost cap | 4% | +2757 | — | — |
| NO FAKES Act | 8% | +1233 | — | 11% |
| Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions | 24% | +317 | — | — |
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Price history
On Polymarket
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Resolution rules
If legislation that requires two unaffiliated networks for processing covered credit-card transactions has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
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