Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/9 - 11/15) Odds · 11/9 - 11/15
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 15 | 92% | -1076 | ▲ 92 |
| Above 20 | 82% | -456 | ▲ 82 |
| Above 23 | 73% | -270 | ▲ 73 |
| Above 25 | 50% | +102 | ▲ 49 |
| Above 27 | 41% | +147 | ▲ 39 |
| Above 30 | 22% | +365 | ▲ 21 |
| Above 35 | 9% | +1076 | — |
| Above 40 | 5% | +2122 | ▲ 4 |
| Above 50 | 2% | +6567 | ▲ 2 |
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Resolution rules
If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 15 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Nov 17, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/9 - 11/15)?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.