Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense Odds · Before Apr 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 2% | +4900 | — |
| Before Nov 16, 2026 | 14% | +641 | ▲ 4 |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 27% | +277 | ▲ 9 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 39% | +160 | ▲ 2 |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 56% | -125 | ▲ 7 |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 68% | -212 | ▲ 2 |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 75% | -292 | ▲ 4 |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | 80% | -388 | — |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 82% | -456 | ▼ 1 |
| Before Jul 1, 2028 | 85% | -567 | ▼ 2 |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 90% | -900 | ▲ 3 |
We may earn a commission if you sign up or trade through links to venues. It never changes the prices or rankings we show. 18+ (21+ where required). Only trade where prediction markets are legal for you. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. How we make money
Resolution rules
If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jan 1, 2029 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.