France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30 Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 98% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | +4778 | ▼ 2 |
| No | 98% | -4778 | ▲ 2 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the French government explicitly claims that the authorities of a foreign country deliberately caused or facilitated the unrest that began in France on October 17, 2026, by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Such a claim requires an on-the-record public statement issued by an authorized person or entity representing the French government, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that the authorities of a foreign country deliberately caused or facilitated the unrest. A statement from a lawmaker speaking in their own capacity or on behalf of a party not in government will not alone qualify. Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify. Statements that do not attribute deliberate intent to the authorities of a foreign country (e.g., "foreign actors exploited the unrest to spread disinformation") will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30"?
As of Nov 8, 6:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 98%, about -4778 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Dec 1, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?
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