Yemeni forces enter Sanaa by... Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 | 4% | +2757 | — |
| December 31 | 5% | +2122 | ▼ 1 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yemeni forces enter any part of Sanaa, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Yemeni forces" refers to the armed forces of the internationally recognized Government of Yemen under the Presidential Leadership Council, and any armed group operating under or on behalf of it. This includes the Yemeni Armed Forces, the Giants Brigades, the Nation's Shield Forces (also rendered Homeland Shield Forces), the National Resistance Forces, and any other force confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to be operating under or on behalf of the internationally recognized Government of Yemen. The armed forces of any other state, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, will not qualify on their own; the participation of foreign state forces alongside qualifying Yemeni forces will not disqualify an entry that otherwise meets the terms of this market. "Sanaa" refers to the city of Sanaa, Yemen, coextensive with the municipality of Amanat Al Asimah, as defined by its official administrative boundaries. Sanaa Governorate is a separate administrative entity, and entry into any part of Sanaa Governorate will not qualify. "Enter" means that the Yemeni forces, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Sanaa, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Only operations involving troops on the ground within Sanaa will qualify. An announcement, threat, or claim of Yemeni forces entry will not qualify without actual entry being established. A force already present in Sanaa that comes to qualify as Yemeni forces by changing allegiance, defecting, or surrendering will not constitute entry. The entrance of Yemeni emissaries for the purpose of negotiating an agreement or other diplomatic or commercial endeavors will not alone qualify. If the occurrence or timing of a potentially qualifying entry cannot be determined on the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market may remain open for three calendar days (ET) after the specified date. If Yemeni forces entry into the specified territory is not established by this market's resolution sources by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Yemeni forces enter Sanaa by...?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.