Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by... Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 98% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | +4067 | — |
| No | 98% | -4067 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by..."?
As of Nov 8, 7:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 98%, about -4067 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.