Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte? Odds
Polymarket traders give “Yes” a 69% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 69% | -217 | ▼ 4 |
| No | 31% | +217 | ▲ 4 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte. The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?"?
As of Nov 8, 7:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Yes at 69%, about -217 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte??
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.