Will another country leave OPEC in 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 95% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | +1718 | ▼ 1 |
| No | 95% | -1718 | ▲ 1 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Will another country leave OPEC in 2026"?
As of Nov 8, 7:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 95%, about -1718 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Dec 31, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
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