120th Congress: Who will be House Minority Leader Odds · In 2027
Kalshi traders give Jim Jordan a 68% chance (Polymarket: 68%).
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Jordan | 68% | -212 | ▲ 7 | 68% |
| Steve Scalise | 28% | +257 | ▲ 8 | 22% |
| August Pfluger | 3% | +3233 | ▼ 22 | — |
| Tom Emmer | 2% | +6567 | ▲ 1 | 7% |
| Brandon Gill | 2% | +6567 | — | — |
| Hakeem Jeffries | <1% | +19900 | — | 7% |
| Mike Johnson | <1% | +19900 | — | <1% |
| Katherine Clark | <1% | +19900 | — | 1% |
| Pete Aguilar | <1% | +19900 | — | — |
| Joe Neguse | <1% | +19900 | — | — |
| Ted Lieu | <1% | +19900 | — | — |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | <1% | +19900 | — | — |
| Lisa McClain | <1% | +19900 | — | <1% |
| Jay Obernolte | <1% | +19900 | — | — |
| Mike Lawler | <1% | +19900 | — | — |
| Richard Hudson | <1% | +19900 | — | — |
| Kevin Hern | <1% | +19900 | — | 2% |
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Price history
On Polymarket
The same question also trades on Polymarket. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
If Hakeem Jeffries wins the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in 120th Congress: Who will be House Minority Leader?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price Jim Jordan at 68%, about -212 in American odds. On Polymarket the same outcome trades at 68%. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jan 8, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on 120th Congress: Who will be House Minority Leader?
This market trades on Kalshi and a matching market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.