House Minority Leader of the next Congress Odds
Polymarket traders give Jim Jordan a 68% chance (Kalshi: 68%).
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Jordan | 68% | -213 | ▲ 5 | 68% |
| Steve Scalise | 22% | +355 | ▼ 10 | 28% |
| Blake Moore | 16% | +525 | ▲ 3 | — |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 7% | +1329 | ▼ 4 | <1% |
| Tom Emmer | 7% | +1381 | ▼ 4 | 2% |
| Kevin Hern | 2% | +6567 | ▲ 1 | <1% |
| Katherine Clark | 1% | +9424 | ▼ 5 | <1% |
| Lisa McClain | <1% | +24900 | ▼ 11 | <1% |
| Mike Johnson | <1% | +33233 | ▼ 6 | <1% |
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Price history
On Kalshi
The same question also trades on Kalshi. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual selected to be Minority Leader of the United States House of Representatives for the 120th United States Congress, which is scheduled to convene in January 2027 following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in House Minority Leader of the next Congress?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Jim Jordan at 68%, about -213 in American odds. On Kalshi the same outcome trades at 68%. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 4, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on House Minority Leader of the next Congress?
This market trades on Polymarket and a matching market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.