Which party will win the Senate in 2028 Odds
Polymarket traders give Democratic Party a 88% chance (Kalshi: 90%).
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 88% | -700 | ▲ 1 | 90% |
| Republican Party | 13% | +700 | — | 11% |
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Price history
On Kalshi
The same question also trades on Kalshi. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate in the 2028 United States general election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and wins the Vice Presidency in the 2028 United States Presidential Election. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 121st Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2028 as of October 31, 2028 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2028. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2028 as of October 31, 2028 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Which party will win the Senate in 2028?
As of Nov 11, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Democratic Party at 88%, about -700 in American odds. On Kalshi the same outcome trades at 90%. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 8, 2028 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Which party will win the Senate in 2028?
This market trades on Polymarket and a matching market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.