How many U.S. reps vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31 Odds
Polymarket traders give No vote a 28% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| No vote | 28% | +251 | ▼ 6 |
| 220-224 | 23% | +344 | ▼ 18 |
| 230-234 | 18% | +456 | ▼ 7 |
| 235-239 | 17% | +488 | ▼ 22 |
| 215-219 | 14% | +590 | ▼ 9 |
| <215 | 14% | +614 | ▲ 5 |
| 225-229 | 11% | +852 | ▼ 21 |
| 240+ | 6% | +1526 | ▼ 17 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of members of the US House of Representatives who vote in favor of impeaching United States Secretary of War (also referred to as the Secretary of Defense) Pete Hegseth on the legislative day of the first House floor vote on articles of impeachment against him held between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If multiple floor votes on articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth are held on the first legislative day on which such a floor vote is held, this market will resolve based on the vote that receives the highest number of votes in favor. Votes held on any later legislative day will not be considered. A floor vote on articles of impeachment is a recorded vote of the full House on the adoption of a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth or of one or more articles of impeachment against him. Procedural votes, including but not limited to votes on motions to table, motions to refer or commit, motions on the previous question, and votes on rules governing debate, will not count, even if the result of such a vote prevents a floor vote on articles of impeachment from being held. The outcome of the vote (whether or not the articles are adopted) does not affect resolution; only the number of votes in favor of impeachment is considered. If no floor vote on articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No vote". The primary resolution source for this market will be the official roll call records of the Clerk of the US House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in How many U.S. reps vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No vote at 28%, about +251 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on How many U.S. reps vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.