Which parties will support the new Israeli government in the vote of confidence by February 28 Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Likud | 37% | +170 | ▼ 5 |
| Yashar | 70% | -228 | ▲ 1 |
| Bennett 2026 | 67% | -199 | ▲ 2 |
| Yesh Atid | 58% | -138 | ▼ 4 |
| Hadash | 36% | +182 | ▼ 12 |
| The Democrats | 50% | -100 | ▲ 1 |
| Ra'am | 61% | -153 | ▲ 1 |
| Yisrael Beiteinu | 61% | -153 | ▲ 2 |
| Otzma Yehudit | 37% | +170 | — |
| Degel HaTorah | 47% | +113 | — |
| Agudat Yisrael | 45% | +122 | ▲ 1 |
| Homat Torat Yisrael | 59% | -141 | ▼ 0 |
| Shas | 38% | +167 | ▼ 1 |
| Religious Zionist Party | 43% | +135 | — |
| Zehut | 40% | +150 | ▼ 14 |
| Ta'al | 50% | +102 | ▲ 2 |
| Balad | 38% | +167 | ▼ 12 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset took place on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a majority of the listed political party's Members of the Knesset vote "For" in the first vote of confidence in a new Israeli government held following the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market may resolve once the result of this vote of confidence is officially confirmed. A party's Members of the Knesset are defined as the members listed under that party in the "List of members-elect" section of the 26th Knesset Wikipedia page (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/26th_Knesset#List_of_members-elect) as of 12:00 PM ET on November 3, 2026. A majority means more than half of these Members; Members who vote "Against", abstain, are absent, or otherwise do not vote "For" will not count toward the majority. If no such vote of confidence is held, or the results are not known definitively by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Only a vote of confidence held by the 26th Knesset, elected on October 27, 2026, will be considered. If the 26th Knesset is dissolved and a new election is called before such a vote is held, this market will resolve to "No". Votes of confidence held after any subsequent Knesset election will not be considered. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
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Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
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Polymarket lists Mar 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
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