Which Dems will underperform Kamala Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Pappas: NH-Sen | 1% | +7900 | — |
| Angie Nixon: FL-Sen | 1% | +7043 | — |
| Peggy Flanagan: MN-Sen | <1% | +11011 | — |
| Troy Jackson: ME-Sen | 26% | +292 | ▼ 31 |
| Abdul El-Sayed: MI-Sen | 2% | +5028 | — |
| David Jolly: FL-Gov | <1% | +12400 | ▼ 1 |
| Keisha Lance Bottoms: GA-Gov | 1% | +7900 | — |
| Tina Kotek: OR-Gov | 89% | -826 | ▲ 14 |
| Kathy Hochul: NY-Gov | 2% | +3982 | — |
We may earn a commission if you sign up or trade through links to venues. It never changes the prices or rankings we show. 18+ (21+ where required). Only trade where prediction markets are legal for you. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. How we make money
Price history
Resolution rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Democratic candidate in a statewide midterm election has an unrounded vote share that is lower than the equivalent vote share earned by Kamala Harris in that state in the 2024 Presidential Election. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the relevant state in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing the named candidate and at least one other candidate. If a candidate's vote share is identical to that of Kamala Harris, this market will resolve to "No". In the event that the relevant vote share for a candidate cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, or a candidate withdraws from the race in a manner that causes them to be permanently removed from the general election ballot, that candidate will be considered to have received 0% of the vote. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 3, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Which Dems will underperform Kamala?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.