What will Fed Rate hit before 2027 Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 5.0% | 2% | +5163 | — |
| ↑ 5.5% | 2% | +4662 | — |
| ↑ 5.25% | 2% | +4662 | — |
| ↑ 4.5% | 2% | +5782 | — |
| ↑ 4.75% | 2% | +5782 | — |
| ↑ 4.25% | 74% | -291 | ▼ 3 |
| ↓ 2.0% | 2% | +4900 | — |
| ↓ 1.0% | 2% | +6150 | — |
| ↓ 1.25% | 2% | +5456 | — |
| ↓ 1.5% | 2% | +4778 | — |
| ↓ 1.75% | 1% | +7043 | — |
| ↓ 0.75% | 2% | +5961 | — |
| ↓ 0.5% | 2% | +6352 | — |
| ↓ 0.25% | 2% | +5028 | — |
| ↓ 0% | 2% | +5305 | — |
| ↓ 2.25% | 2% | +5163 | — |
| ↓ 2.5% | 1% | +6797 | — |
| ↓ 2.75% | 2% | +6150 | — |
| ↓ 3.0% | 2% | +5456 | — |
| ↓ 3.25% | 2% | +5163 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Dec 31, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.