U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027 Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 94% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | +1639 | — |
| No | 94% | -1639 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify. High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027"?
As of Nov 8, 7:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 94%, about -1639 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.