US defaults on debt by 2027 Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 99% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | +6797 | ▼ 0 |
| No | 99% | -6797 | ▲ 1 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "US defaults on debt by 2027"?
As of Nov 8, 7:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 99%, about -6797 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on US defaults on debt by 2027?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.