Red wave in 2026 Odds · Before Feb 2027
Kalshi traders give No a 99% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | +6567 | — |
| No | 99% | -6567 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If ALL of the following occur for the 2026 midterms: U.S. House: Republicans win 220 or more seats, U.S. Senate: Republicans hold 55 or more seats, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Red wave in 2026"?
As of Nov 8, 7:00 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price No at 99%, about -6567 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Feb 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Red wave in 2026?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.