Israel Election: Arab party disqualified Odds
Polymarket traders give No a >99% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | <1% | +19900 | — |
| No | >99% | -19900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
Elections to the 26th Knesset were held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Arab party is effectively disqualified from taking the seats it won in the 2026 Knesset election by the swearing-in of the 26th Knesset, or November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time, whichever comes first. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An Arab party is defined as Ra'am (United Arab List) or the Joint List. A disqualification is defined as any official action by Israeli authorities, taken after the October 27, 2026 election, that prevents an Arab party from taking the seats it won in the 26th Knesset. This includes, but is not limited to: an official determination that all votes cast for an Arab party’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated; the members elected on an Arab party’s list being barred from taking their seats in the Knesset; or an Arab party being forcibly dissolved or deregistered in a manner that prevents its elected members from taking their seats. The invalidation of votes at individual polling stations, recounts, or other corrections to the official election results will not qualify, even if they reduce the number of seats an Arab party receives or cause its list to fall below the electoral threshold. A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if the Arab party is otherwise reinstated and permitted to take its seats, the disqualification will not qualify. A decision by an Arab party to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to take its seats will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates, members, or officials of an Arab party will not qualify, provided that party’s other elected members are permitted to take their seats. Confirmation of a disqualification may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, the relevant Arab party, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Confirmation must occur by the swearing-in of the 26th Knesset, or November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time, whichever comes first. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and the relevant Arab party; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Israel Election: Arab party disqualified"?
As of Nov 8, 7:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at >99%, about -19900 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 30, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Israel Election: Arab party disqualified?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.