Ilhan Omar arrested by... Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 87% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | +641 | ▲ 3 |
| No | 87% | -641 | ▼ 2 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilhan Omar is arrested between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest occurs when Omar is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true: (i) she is criminally booked or processed; (ii) she is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument; (iii) she is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or (iv) she is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center. The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds. Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Ilhan Omar arrested by..."?
As of Nov 8, 7:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 87%, about -641 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Ilhan Omar arrested by...?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.