How many votes will Jeffries get on the first Speaker ballot Odds · Opening of the 120th Congress
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 240 | 89% | -770 | ▲ 89 |
| At least 243 | 86% | -614 | — |
| At least 246 | 78% | -355 | ▲ 79 |
| At least 249 | 74% | -277 | — |
| At least 252 | 57% | -133 | ▼ 1 |
| At least 255 | 39% | +160 | ▼ 1 |
| At least 258 | 20% | +413 | ▼ 4 |
| At least 261 | 8% | +1233 | — |
We may earn a commission if you sign up or trade through links to venues. It never changes the prices or rankings we show. 18+ (21+ where required). Only trade where prediction markets are legal for you. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. How we make money
Price history
Resolution rules
If the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least 240 before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists May 2, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on How many votes will Jeffries get on the first Speaker ballot?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.