How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give 4 a 79% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 79% | -385 | — |
| 5 | 11% | +797 | — |
| 6 | 3% | +3025 | — |
| 7 | 1% | +9424 | — |
| 10 | <1% | +11665 | — |
| 8 | <1% | +12400 | — |
| 9 | <1% | +28471 | — |
| 12 | <1% | +66567 | — |
| 15+ | <1% | +66567 | — |
| 11 | <1% | +99900 | — |
| 13 | <1% | +99900 | — |
| 14 | <1% | +99900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 7:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price 4 at 79%, about -385 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.