Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election Odds
Polymarket traders give Fernando Dias da Costa a 9% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Dias da Costa | 9% | +1070 | — |
| Honório Augusto Lopes | 4% | +2339 | — |
| Umaro Sissoco Embaló | 4% | +2369 | — |
| João Bernardo Vieira | 2% | +4155 | — |
| Mário da Silva Júnior | 2% | +4155 | — |
| José Mário Vaz | 2% | +4344 | — |
| Baciro Djá | 2% | +6352 | — |
| Siga Batista | 2% | +6567 | — |
| Herculano Armando Bequinsa | <1% | +10426 | — |
| João de Deus Mendes | <1% | +11665 | — |
| Gabriel Fernando Indi | <1% | +12400 | — |
| Mamadu Iaia Djaló | <1% | +39900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election?
As of Nov 8, 7:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Fernando Dias da Costa at 9%, about +1070 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 24, 2025 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.