GOP Black vote share Odds
Polymarket traders give 8–9% a >99% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8–9% | >99% | -13233 | ▲ 5 |
| 10–11% | 1% | +8233 | ▼ 1 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN. This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026. For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous. In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below. In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC. In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number. If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in GOP Black vote share?
As of Nov 8, 7:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price 8–9% at >99%, about -13233 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 7, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on GOP Black vote share?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.